[snow_wizard]

weather55, on Nov 22 2007, 07:19 PM, said:

since all models show a trough in the west heres my predtictions,alaska wll get warm from the trough in the west.hopefully this pattern holds.ive predicted a trough in the west since september and its coming true it looks like,do you expect this to stay or to be a quick thing?

Not nearly cold enough if the models verify.

[weatherman714]

weather55, on Nov 22 2007, 06:10 PM, said:

18 gfs looking good also

The 18Z GFS has serious issues as well. Someone has their finger on the outputs... Cold air that's moving south that mysteriously stops at the Canadian Boarder and then ever strengthening southerly vectors across the SE US but the temperature fields at 850mb keep getting COLDER when using model comparsions... Come on this model is being fixed by the US Govt or the US Military.

[weatherman714]

weather55, on Nov 22 2007, 06:18 PM, said:

so what are you saying?its no good?

...take it with a grain of salt and analyize everything in the model and see if it makes sense to you. It does exactly what I said the US Govt's agenda would make it do. Deposit the cold air over the Gulf of Alaska or hold up the cold air across Canada, meanwhile creating some massive historic bermuda high pressure that brings 80's to most of the US next week. They would have their finger on the model in critcal locations and time frames, either with the algorithims or with tampered packet data used to run the model. The 18Z does exactly what I've been expecting and it's all one big lie. Two days ago the GFS didn't have the cold front that came through my place in Baltimore a few hours ago, not making it across the Applachain mountains. All you have to do is look at the NGM and NAM to see the lie... Seriously go back and compare and make sure it makes sense to you. When I was in my late teens/early 20's I use to jump on every model run and would get burned big time. I got a little older and a little wiser since then... it's a painful experience.

[Jesse]

weatherman714, on Nov 22 2007, 04:14 PM, said:

The 18Z GFS has serious issues as well. Someone has their finger on the outputs... Cold air that's moving south that mysteriously stops at the Canadian Boarder and then ever strengthening southerly vectors across the SE US but the temperature fields at 850mb keep getting COLDER when using model comparsions... Come on this model is being fixed by the US Govt or the US Military.

You need to be committed.

[weatherman714]

Orchards J, on Nov 22 2007, 06:36 PM, said:

You need to be committed.

In 2002 manuiplating weather models didn't matter. Natural Gas prices traded between $2 and $3 on the Henry Hub exchange. Then in Mar'03 we were less than 100bcf from a nationwide shortage of Natural Gas. From there natural gas prices spiked to $14/contract in Dec '05. It was a huge strain on home heating bills,given the severe cold in early Dec '05. The US Economy right now is basically staring down a long long endless tube of demise. Our currency is on the verge of collaspe as foregin countries are moving to a currency basket. The US Govt has lost control over the price of oil and the only ace up their sleeve seems to be Natural Gas prices. By creating fairy tale forecast runs they affect prices of Natural Gas on the Henry Hub exchange. So if your in the US Govt faced with these challenges, what do you do? You attempt to drive speculation and prices out of the market by providing a smoke and mirrors illusion to the weather reality in the medium to long term. It's called the economics of weather.

[weatherman714]

weather55, on Nov 22 2007, 06:58 PM, said:

come on weatherman this post is about the possibility of the upcoming cold but we will see what happens

I wasn't attempting to troll and hijack your thread. We're all meteorologists on one level or another and we all have egos about our own forecasting abilities. When I see someone put forth an attempt like you are that seem level headed I like to try and help that person to become a better meteorologist. I've had my share of very painful defeats and my share of unimaginable success. I even said that the coldest air was heading into Montana with some spill over into Idaho. I'm not so sure on the rest of the trough. But I took the "bait" and had to defend my "being committed" comment. There's a saying that goes, "if a person doesn't understand that weather and energy usage go hand in hand they are either a madman or a meteorologist."

[weatherman714]

weather55, on Nov 22 2007, 10:17 PM, said:

ok lol.so u dont think there will be a deep trough.i do because all models show it and its not in the long longe range

The trends are towards my forecasts... bitter cold across Montana, some of it bleeding into Idaho, the rest of the cold air gets shipped eastward... and of course it's going to run down the front side of the Rockies. I was refering to the Intermountain West.Desert SW and Pac NW as doubtful for the arctic intrusion and trough.

[Joey]

00z GFS shows a huge ridge past 300